Forecast Accuracy Comparisons for South Franklin Weather

South Franklin Weather ( Huon Valley Southern Tasmania ) provides forecasts that are generated every six hours daily using ( WxSim ) software. We also provide forecasts from the Weather Underground Service ( WU ). Below are charts comparing the (12z GFS - based data) "next day" ( WxSim ) forecast that we generate onsite against the same "next day" forecast from ( WU ). These forecasts are then compared to the actual observations for that day. The first chart compares the High forecasts, the second chart compares the Low forecasts, and the third chart shows the delta between each forecast and the actual temperatures.




South Franklin Weather ( Huon Valley Southern Tasmania ) provides forecasts that are generated every six hours daily using ( WxSim ) software. We also provide forecasts from the Weather Underground Service ( WU ). Below are charts comparing the (18z GFS - based data) "next day" ( WxSim ) forecast that we generate onsite against the same "next day" forecast from ( WU ). These forecasts are then compared to the actual observations for that day. The first chart compares the High forecasts, the second chart compares the Low forecasts, and the third chart shows the delta between each forecast and the actual temperatures.




The next charts compares the Mean Absolute Error (MAE) from the forecasts generated each day for the past 30 days to the MAE value for the same period from a year prior. The mean absolute error is an average of the absolute difference between the actual temperature and the forecasted temperature in WxSim forecasts, displayed in C and F.


This final chart compares the Mix Percentage of WxSim-Lite ( bias corrections ) used in the final WxSim Modelling for the forecasts generated each day over the past 30 days to the WxSim-Lite Mix Percent value for the same period from a year prior. The Current Target is set to 63% influence on temperature and dew point from WXSIM-Lite data. Graph below shows the the current % climbing to reach that target.