Forecast Accuracy Comparisons - for South Franklin Weather

South Franklin Weather ( Huon Valley Southern Tasmania ) provides forecasts that are generated every six hours daily using ( WxSim ). Below are Tables and Charts comparing our ( WxSim ) Forecast to our Actual Observations, also includes our ( WxSim ) forecast ahead.

WxSim vs Actual ( High and Low ) Temperature Comparison by Day Actual Observed (Act), WxSim Generated (WS)
( If ± 2.0° C          ) or ( if ± 5.0° C          )
Early Morning - GFS 12z Run ( 5:15 AEDT )
Goal Min Temp Compare Max Temp Compare
± 2.0° C Minimum Low Range Maximum High Range
Date Act WS Delta WS Delta Act WS Delta WS Delta
2018-10-1613.611.9-1.710.7-2.925.026.11.127.02.0
2018-10-1511.711.1-0.610.4-1.326.727.10.427.81.1
2018-10-147.17.0-0.16.5-0.623.424.00.624.71.3
2018-10-136.65.3-1.34.7-1.922.423.41.024.11.7
2018-10-127.66.0-1.65.6-2.019.219.50.320.10.9
2018-10-112.12.40.31.9-0.215.317.92.618.33.0
2018-10-103.73.5-0.23.1-0.613.115.01.915.42.3
2018-10-096.97.30.47.10.213.112.9-0.213.80.7
2018-10-088.77.1-1.66.7-2.017.721.63.922.14.4
2018-10-079.08.6-0.48.2-0.820.121.71.622.52.4

Late Morning - GFS 18z Run ( 11:15 AEDT )
Goal Min Temp Compare Max Temp Compare
± 2.0° C Minimum Low Range Maximum High Range
Date Act WS Delta WS Delta Act WS Delta WS Delta
2018-10-1613.611.8-1.810.1-3.525.025.30.326.21.2
2018-10-1511.710.0-1.79.5-2.226.725.8-0.926.6-0.1
2018-10-147.16.5-0.66.1-1.023.423.60.224.30.9
2018-10-136.64.5-2.14.0-2.622.421.8-0.622.40.0
2018-10-127.65.2-2.44.7-2.919.219.80.620.41.2
2018-10-112.1-0.1-2.2-0.6-2.715.316.91.617.21.9
2018-10-103.72.7-1.02.2-1.513.114.51.414.91.8
2018-10-096.96.90.06.7-0.213.113.20.114.11.0
2018-10-088.74.8-3.94.4-4.317.718.40.718.91.2
2018-10-079.07.5-1.57.0-2.020.120.50.421.31.2

Afternoon - GFS 00z Run ( 17:15 AEDT )
Goal Min Temp Compare Max Temp Compare
± 2.0° C Minimum Low Range Maximum High Range
Date Act WS Delta WS Delta Act WS Delta WS Delta
2018-10-1613.612.0-1.611.7-1.925.026.81.827.62.6
2018-10-1511.710.6-1.110.3-1.426.725.8-0.925.6-1.1
2018-10-147.16.7-0.46.4-0.723.422.1-1.322.7-0.7
2018-10-136.64.9-1.74.4-2.222.422.2-0.222.90.5
2018-10-127.65.0-2.64.6-3.019.218.8-0.419.40.2
2018-10-112.1-0.1-2.2-0.6-2.715.318.02.719.03.7
2018-10-103.72.7-1.02.2-1.513.114.51.414.91.8
2018-10-096.95.9-1.05.7-1.213.113.40.314.31.2
2018-10-088.74.6-4.14.2-4.517.721.33.621.84.1
2018-10-079.06.4-2.66.0-3.020.121.00.921.71.6

Late Evening - GFS 06z Run ( 23:15 AEDT )
Goal Min Temp Compare Max Temp Compare
± 2.0° C Minimum Low Range Maximum High Range
Date Act WS Delta WS Delta Act WS Delta WS Delta
2018-10-1613.613.0-0.611.4-2.225.028.13.128.93.9
2018-10-1511.711.4-0.311.0-0.726.727.10.427.91.2
2018-10-147.17.90.87.40.323.423.40.024.10.7
2018-10-136.67.50.97.10.522.423.20.823.91.5
2018-10-127.68.10.57.60.019.219.80.620.61.4
2018-10-112.12.0-0.11.5-0.615.317.42.118.22.9
2018-10-103.73.6-0.13.1-0.613.115.12.015.42.3
2018-10-096.97.00.16.7-0.213.114.11.020.67.5
2018-10-088.76.4-2.36.0-2.717.720.62.922.44.7
2018-10-079.07.8-1.27.3-1.720.120.90.821.71.6

The first 2 Charts below reflect ( Min / Max Delta ) data from the above Tables



The next charts compares the Mean Absolute Error (MAE) from the forecasts generated each day for the past 30 days to the MAE value for the same period from a year prior. The mean absolute error is an average of the absolute difference between the actual temperature and the forecasted temperature in WxSim forecasts, displayed in C and F.


This final chart compares the Mix Percentage of WxSim-Lite ( bias corrections ) used in the final WxSim Modelling for the forecasts generated each day over the past 30 days to the WxSim-Lite Mix Percent value for the same period from a year prior. The Current Target is set to 46% influence on temperature and dew point from WXSIM-Lite data. Graph below shows the the current % climbing to reach that target.


WxSim ErrDate & ErrDep (Autolearn - Error Correction Graphs) Run at 04:15(AEST) each day.

WXSIM - ErrDate - Graph
WXSIM - ErrDate - Graph
Last Uploaded on : 16 October 2018 23:19:10.
WXSIM - ErrDep - Graph
WXSIM - ErrDep - Graph
Last Uploaded on : 16 October 2018 23:19:10.

WXSIM Forecast WRET Image

WXSIM Forecast Analysis Display (WRET Image)
WxSim Auto Generated Image above ( ../latest.png ) Last Uploaded on : 16 October 2018 23:19:10.