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Space Weather Observations, Alerts, and Forecast (Includes Aurora Alerts)

3-day Solar-Geophysical Forecast

Product: 3-Day Forecast - Issued: 2018 Aug 14 0030 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center.

Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Aug 14-Aug 16 2018 is 4 (below NOAA Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Aug 14-Aug 16 2018
Aug 14Aug 15Aug 16
00-03UT224
03-06UT124
06-09UT123
09-12UT123
12-15UT133
15-18UT132
18-21UT242
21-00UT243

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-15 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Aug 14-Aug 16 2018
Aug 14Aug 15Aug 16
S1 or greater1%1%1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.

Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Aug 14-Aug 16 2018
Aug 14Aug 15Aug 16
R1-R21%1%1%
R3 or greater1%1%1%

Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.



Real Time Images of the Sun


SOHO EIT 304
Click for time-lapse image of the sun
SOHO EIT 284
SOHO EIT 284 image of the sun
Mauna Loa Solar Image
Latest Mauna Loa image of the Sun

The sun is constantly monitored for sun spots and coronal mass ejections. EIT (Extreme ultraviolet Imaging Telescope) images the solar atmosphere at several wavelengths, and therefore, shows solar material at different temperatures. In the images taken at 304 Angstrom the bright material is at 60,000 to 80,000 degrees Kelvin. In those taken at 171 Angstrom, at 1 million degrees. 195 Angstrom images correspond to about 1.5 million Kelvin, 284 Angstrom to 2 million degrees. The hotter the temperature, the higher you look in the solar atmosphere.


Sunspots - latest image

Yesterday Sunspots

Real Time Solar X-ray and Solar Wind


Latest LASCO Solar Corona
Images of the solar corona
Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph (LASCO).
Current Solar Wind Speed
Current Solar Wind Speed
Data supplied by NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center.

Solar X-ray Flux
Graph showing Real-Time Solar X-ray Flux
This plot shows 3-days of 5-minute solar x-ray flux values measured on the SWPC primary and secondary GOES satellites.
Satellite Environment Plot
Graph showing Real-Time Satellite Environment Plot
The Satellite Environment Plot combines satellite and ground-based data to provide an overview of the current geosynchronous satellite environment.

Solar Cycle


Sun Spot Number Progression
Graph showing Sun Spot Number Progression
This plot shows the Solar Cycle Sun Spot Number Progression.
F10.7cm Radio Flux Progression
Graph showing F10.7cm Radio Flux Progression
This plot shows the F10.7cm Radio Flux Progression.
Ap Progression
Graph showing Ap Progression
This plot shows the Solar Cycle Ap Progression.

The Solar Cycle is observed by counting the frequency and placement of sunspots visible on the Sun. Solar minimum occurred in December, 2008.
Solar maximum was expected to occur in May, 2013.


Aurora Forecast

Aurora Alert

Geophysical Conditions

K-Index
Australian Region Estimated K-Index

Geomagnetic
Warning

Geomagnetic Warning
pc3-Index
Australian Region pc3 Index

GEOSTAT
Alert

GEOSTAT Alert
AusDst-Index
AusDst-Index

Geomagnetic
Alert

Geomagnetic Alert
Alerts courtesy of IPS (Ionospheric Prediction Service) Australian Bureau of Meteorology

You can view a (7MB) animation on the effects of space weather on the geomagnetic field.

Hobart - Estimated K-Index Plot

Hobart K-Index Plot

You can also view the Hobart K-Index Plot at IPS (Ionospheric Prediction Service).


D REGION ABSORPTION PREDICTION.

D REGION ABSORPTION PREDICTION

You can also view the TIMELAPSE of D REGION ABSORPTION PREDICTION at SWPC NOAA (SPACE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER) for Space Weather Enthusiasts.



These plots show real time Aurora Forecasts.

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Map courtesy of NOAA - OVATION Aurora - Prime Model
Instruments on board the NOAA Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite (POES) continually monitor the power flux carried by the protons and electrons that produce aurora in the atmosphere. SWPC has developed a technique that uses the power flux observations obtained during a single pass of the satellite over a polar region (which takes about 25 minutes) to estimate the total power deposited in an entire polar region by these auroral particles. The power input estimate is converted to an auroral activity index that ranges from 1 to 10.



VHF and HF Band Conditions




N3KL Solar Activity Monitor

Solar X-rays:

Geomagnetic Field:
N3KL Site Down
N3KL Site Down
 
From n3kl.org

About the Solar X-ray status monitor

The X-ray Solar status monitor downloads data periodically from the NOAA Space Environment Center FTP server. The previous 24 hours of 5 minute Long-wavelength X-ray data from each satellite (GOES 8 and GOES 10) is analyzed, and an appropriate level of activity for the past 24 hours is assigned as follows:

N3KL Site Down
Normal: Solar X-ray flux is quiet (< 1.00e-6 W/m^2)

N3KL Site Down
Active: Solar X-ray flux is active (>= 1.00e-6 W/m^2)

N3KL Site Down
M Class Flare: An M Class flare has occurred (X-ray flux >= 1.00e-5 W/m^2)

N3KL Site Down
X Class Flare: An X Class flare has occurred (X-ray flux >= 1.00e-4 W/m^2)

N3KL Site Down
Mega Flare: An unprecedented X-ray event has occurred (X-ray flux >= 1.00e-3 W/m^2)
The designation "Mega Flare" was chosen by Kevin Loch when the status monitor was created on March 4, 1999.
There is no "official" designation for flares in this range.

About the Geomagnetic Field status monitor

The Geomagnetic Field status monitor downloads data periodically from the NOAA Space Environment Center FTP server. The previous 24 hours of 3 hour Planetary Kp Index data is analyzed and an appropriate level of activity for the past 24 hours is assigned as follows:

N3KL Site Down
Quiet: the Geomagnetic Field is quiet (Kp < 4)
N3KL Site Down
Active: the Geomagnetic Field has been unsettled (Kp=4)
N3KL Site Down
Storm: A Geomagnetic Storm has occurred (Kp>4)



What Causes an Aurora


geomagnetic storm

An artistic view of a geomagnetic storm. Captures show where the CME forms, where is solar wind and how it affects our magnetosphere (Credit: K.Endo/The Watchers)


Aurora over ANARESAT radome at Davis

June 28th Aurora - 9:30pm to 6:30am 13 sec, Fisheye 11mm, ISO 800, f/4 One shot taken every 20 seconds Rendered at 15 frames per second.





'Eclipse on the Beach' by Alex Cherney and James McHugh


Total Solar Eclipse, November 14th 2012 from Alex Cherney on Vimeo.
See all the finalists on the CWAS website.



If you have questions about auroras or want to know what is happening right now in the sky, please join the Facebook group
Facebook Image not availableAurora Australis Tasmania on Facebook

Or visit...

Facebook Image not availableAurora Service - Australis on Facebook

Aurora Service - Australis Forecast
Aurora Service - Australis - Website



Credits:

Space Weather Images and Information (excluded from copyright) courtesy of:
NOAA / NWS Space Weather Prediction Center
Mauna Loa Solar Observatory (HAO/NCAR)
SOHO (ESA & NASA).


Space Weather links:
SpaceWeather.com
IPS (Ionospheric Prediction Service) Australian Bureau of Meteorology
3-Day Forecast of Solar and Geophysical Activity
Space Weather Overview
LASCO Coronagraph
Real-Time Solar Wind
Space Weather Advisory Outlooks
Space Weather Forecast Disussions
Space Weather Alerts, Watches and Warnings
Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO)
The Very Latest SOHO Images